Now that the 2017 Oscar nominations have been officially announced, the prognosticators are busy at work.
With just over a month to go until the winners are announced, some nominees, like director Damien Chazelle from “La La Land,” are front-runners to win their categories, according to experts from sites like FiveThirtyEight, the Awards Circuit and Gold Derby.
Now, things can and will change over the next month, but here’s a quick look at where we stand now.
Walt Hickey, the site’s pop culture guru, has Chazelle on top as best director, with his film “La La Land” also taking home best picture.
There’s a tie right now between Natalie Portman (“Jackie”) and Isabelle Huppert (“Elle”) for best actress.
Casey Affleck of “Manchester by the Sea,” who is widely regarded as the front-runner for the best actor Oscar, is Hickey’s pick, as is Viola Davis as best supporting actress for her role in “Fences.” The last of the big categories is best supporting actor, which Hickey thinks Mahershala Ali of “Moonlight” will win.
Some of the closest categories are best picture, with “La La Land” only 3 score points above “Moonlight.” But this could change over the next 30 days. Right now Affleck has a comfortable lead over the rest of the group in the best actor category, as does Davis and Ali.
According to Clayton Davis from the Awards Circuit, “It’s hard to bet against it but ‘Moonlight’ has its eye on possibly pulling in 2 SAG wins at the upcoming ceremony, which could help significantly.”
Chazelle tops the site’s list for best director with Barry Jenkins of “Moonlight” right behind him. Affleck is the odds on favorite for best actor. Awards Circuit puts Denzel Washington in the No. 2 slot for that category but points out that Ryan Gosling could close the gap in coming weeks.
Awards Circuit has Emma Stone as its front-runner for best actress with Portman and Huppert right behind her. Ali is the site’s pick for supporting actor, with Michael Shannon a close second. Davis sits at the top for supporting actress with Michelle Williams from “Manchester by the Sea” in the No. 2 spot.
Once again “La La Land” is the early favorite for best picture, with “Moonlight” right on its heels, per Gold Derby. Chazelle is in the lead for best director and Stone again is favored to take home the best actress Oscar.
Affleck and Davis are leading in their respective categories and Ali is the No. 1 pick again for best supporting actor. Derby’s No. 2 in the best supporting actor category is Oscar winner Jeff Bridges, who is no stranger to the Academy stage. Dev Patel is also in the running for his work in “Lion.”
These rankings are sure to change over time, so check back to find out if your favorite actor or actress is still the “favorite” to win.
The 89th Academy Awards will be broadcast on Feb. 26 and is hosted by ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel.
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